Week 4 NFL: VICTIV Value Plays and Introducing: THE MEGATOOL
In Week 3 I helped people out by recommending Marshawn Lynch, who turned out to be the leading fantasy back for the week.
I mention this first to divert attention from the other 8 picks that didn’t do anyone any favors. To be fair Geno Smith and Pierre Thomas weren’t terrible picks given their price. Also to be fair – Cam Newton, Marques Colston, Mohamed Sanu and Sammy Watkins were all major disappointments. And Dennis Pitta suffered a season ending injury. Call it the curse of the Rotoquant …. Hopefully you made some cash on my picks against the spread.
To ensure more performant picks this and every week – and provide a way for you to do your own research with access to all the stats and data visualizations you could want to make your decisions – I created version 1.0 of what I’ve dubbed The MegaTool. This dynamic interactive data exploration tool has statistics for every player dating back to last year, and allows you to dig into the data to find actionable insights that should help you win your match-ups in any format. To check out the first generation download and install the free Wolfram CDF player here, and download version 1.0 of the MegaTool here.
Let’s see how the tool can help us find some week 4 value plays at Victiv:
Matt Stafford ($9,400) – Stafford has not been Stafford so far this year. Last weekend’s much hyped ‘shootout’ with the Packers didn’t materialize, but I think Stafford goes big here against the Jets who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s.
Blake Bortles ($7,400) – All the hype this week is around Bridgewater, but I have a suspicion that Bortles will be the rookie QB to own this week. Bridgewater is going against an Atlanta defense that isn’t getting much credit, but has allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to QB’s so far in 2014. I expect SD vs JAX to be a shootout, making Bortles a potentially solid risk-reward value play at this price.
Eddie Lacy ($6,100) – In a week with 6 teams on bye, going against a less than stellar CHI defense, Lacy is priced as the 13th best RB option. And I can see why – through 3 games he’s the 48th best fantasy RB – putting up a meager 5 points per game and being eclipsed by such fantasy heavyweights as Shonn Greene and Roy Helu. I think GB sticks to the ground attack this week and Lacy gets his. If he doesn’t he’ll be in danger of losing his job to backup James Starks who has looked good when given opportunity.
Donald Brown ($5,100) – Check out the distribution of plays involved last week for RB’s in The MegaTool. For the non-tech savvy I’ll spoil the surprise with a screenshot – Donald Brown tops the list being involved in 49% of SD’s offensive plays last week (31 rushing attempts!). This week he faces off against the porous JAX defense, should be solid value at this price assuming he can avoid injury under such a heavy workload.
Vincent Jackson ($5,300) – Last year when playing with Glennon at the helm Jackson was a beast. His value has dropped radically from the start of the year and should put up points against a Steeler’s defense that shouldn’t be able to slow him down.
Falcons ($3,600) – The underrated Atlanta D faces rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater and an Adrian Peterson-less Vikings team this weekend – need I say more?
To convert your football knowledge into real cash prizes each week, check out the action at Victiv.com. This week get your piece of our $34,000 in promotional contests – they are filling fast!
Good luck to all in your week 4 action. Follow me on Twitter @TheRotoquant for more picks, insights, content and updates every week.