Week 4 NFL Picks from the Machine

by thesanction1

Here we go again. It’s Wednesday and we are 24 hours from week 4 NFL Thursday night football. The Machine followed up it’s 12 win 4 losses in week two with 11 wins 5 losses and a tie last week. Some might say it’s crazy to be giving away picks that are running a 71% pick rate against the spread. But whatever. I’ve got like 600 followers on Twitter, and most people have been following the Rotoquant from the start. I like to hear my friends say they are using my picks to win their yearly competitions. Hell, my mom even won a pick-em contest in week two, picking more games accurately using the Machine than anyone else in the city of Boise, Id. You’re all welcome.

If you could share the blog, follow me on Twitter @TheRotoquant and/or sign up at Victiv: the next evolution in fantasy sports, it’d be greatly appreciated. Mom – I know you don’t have a Twitter account, it’s OK. To everyone else – please keep these good weeks in mind. When the picks inevitably go wrong one of these weeks, try and go easy on me … Yes, I built the Machine from scratch, and it’s a half-sentient complex blend of algorithms that search through thousands of variables to predict these games, and yes, I believe that it’s perhaps the most predictive NFL betting algorithm on earth. But this is still sports betting, and things still go wrong.

Now that that’s out of the way, here are the picks for week 4 sorted by least to most confident. The highlighted team is the suggested pick, the absolute value of the factor is an indication of the confidence in that pick – a larger absolute value indicates higher confidence:

Season_2014_Week_4

Last week we had our first ‘lock’ and, as locks so often do, it went predictably wrong. So while my high confidence picks (any pick made with a factor greater than 3.0 or less than -3.0 is considered high-confidence) went 7 and 2 (78%) against the spread last week, my *most* confident pick was a horrible, horrible miss. It was on both my LVH Supercontest cards – where I’ve potentially got $1 million on the line – so I was as disappointed as anyone to see them lose. If you’re confused about how such a high confidence pick could possibly go wrong, please revisit paragraph 2 of this post … Any time anyone uses the term ‘lock’ I cringe – I cringe hardest when I use the term. There’s simply no such thing. Stuff happens. If you think you really have an edge you should never, ever blow your bankroll on a single game, no matter how confident you are in the pick. Lesson learned.

My cards this week will be as follows:

TheSanction – BAL, NE, TEN, NYG, ATL

Rotoquant – BAL, NE, TEN, ATL, CHI

Good luck in all your contests this week – we’ve increased our payouts at Victiv for the 4th week in a row, running an eye-popping $34,000 in guaranteed payouts and free contests this weekend… Let the fantasy football bonanza never end! Football season is only 18 short weeks so play now or forever hold your peace.  I’ll be back later in the week with an analysis of the value picks from last week, as well as a new crop of picks for this weekend. The top secret fantasy sports weapon of mass statistical destruction I’ve dubbed ‘TheMegatool’ is coming… stay tuned.

For sports, fantasy sports and sports betting analytics updates throughout the year Follow me on Twitter @TheRotoquant.

Cheers!