Week 3 NFL Pick Results: 10 – 5 – 1 ATS
Another good week from the machine – picking 11 of 16 against the spread and 7 of 9 for those games over a 3.0 threshold. Over the last two weeks, excluding the always wonky week one games, the machine has gone 22 of 31 against the spread (71% with 1 push) – that’s pretty good and exactly commensurate with the expectations from backtesting (for the record, week 1 in backtesting was expected to be sup-par as well). The odds of flipping 22 heads in 31 tosses is only 1 in 100. Every winning week does, and should, increase confidence in the validity of the Machine. Still, it’s not entirely impossible to get these results by chance alone, so we shouldn’t get too excited just yet.
Here are the official week 3 results:
I’m obviously feeling much better about the LVH Supercontest. Both my cards are now in the top 10% of all the entries. They stand as follows:
TheSanction (tied for 130th of 1403): 10 wins, 5 losses
Rotoquant (tied for 130th of 1403): 10 wins, 5 losses
You can see the official rankings, along with my entries, here.
As I mentioned last week, the Supercontest only pays prizes to the top-30 finishers – both my cards are still 100 spots out of the money – but outside of confirming the predictive power of the Machine, this week was advanced my cards up the leader board several hundred spots. Their are no perfect cards, and only two cards with only 1 loss. At 10 and 5 I’m a mere 4 picks off the lead, a difference that could be made up in a single perfect week. The top prize is $736,575, and 2nd place will likely be half that – my goal is to take down both prizes for over $1 million dollar take. Follow along – it’s going to be a wild ride.
The next evolution of fantasy sports – Victiv – also had an awesome week 3 of NFL action. We’ve already are put up $24,000 in free and guaranteed prizes for this weekend and are still offering a 100% drip-in deposit bonus up to $1,000 if you sign up today. Draft a team and ride your fantasy knowledge to glory, power, money, bragging rights, and potentially more friends. Who knows, you might even get some chicks – take it from me, there’s nothing women love more than a guy who obsesses about fantasy sports and sports analytics 24 hours a day, spends 12 hours every Sunday screaming at the TV and drinking beer, and ends up making bank… what’s that mom? Women only like the last thing? Well crap … play anyway… because It’s really, really fun.
I’ll review the performance of my DFS value plays from last week, put out this week’s Supercontest picks and put out week 4 Victiv value plays later on this week. I also hope to be launching an interactive NFL MegaTool that will give you a dynamic UI to help make decisions on who to start / sit based off some harder-to-come-by data like participation, targets, and total team plays. Hoping to launch the RB version later this week – I’ll keep you posted.
Follow me on Twitter @TheRotoquant, and please share these picks and this blog with your friends. If all goes well I wont be able to announce them so publicly for long.
Thanks so much, and good luck to everyone in their contests this week!