Week 3 NFL Picks from the Machine

by thesanction1

Here we go again. It’s Wednesday and we are 36 hours from week 3 NFL Thursday night football. The afterglow of last week’s 12 of 16 performance against the spread has faded. There’s no such thing as momentum in sports betting, if this week turns out 4 of 16 I’ll be right back where I started – sitting down to a piping hot plate of humble pie and wondering where the bugs are in my algorithms. Am I excited? Hell yeah I’m excited! Am I still nervous?! Absolutely.

Here are the picks for week 3 sorted by least to most confident. The highlighted team is the suggested pick, the absolute value of the factor is an indication of the confidence in that pick – a larger absolute value indicates higher confidence:


You might notice that the factors are much higher this week than last, including a -13.2 factor for the Titans game. In backtesting a factor that high only occurred 15 times last year, and picks above that threshold went 15 for 15. So the Machine is making the numerical equivalent of predicting a ‘lock’, which is terrifying. Can’t wait to see how it turns out.

My cards will be as follows:

TheSanction – TEN, ATL, SD, ARI, IND

Rotoquant – TEN, ATL, SD, ARI, HOU

Good luck in all your contests this week – we’ve got $28,000 in guaranteed payouts running at Victiv this weekend – it’s going to be a freaking bonanza! I’ll be back later in the week with an analysis of the value picks from last week, as well as a new crop of picks for this weekend.

For sports, fantasy sports and sports betting analytics updates throughout the year Follow me on Twitter @TheRotoquant.