NFL Week One Pick Performance

by thesanction1

To my knowledge, I am not a father. Hell, I can barely take care of my dog. You see – my world is currently wrapped up in sports and sports analytics. Girls? Kids? Pets? Ain’t nobody got time for that! It’s football season!

To take this misguided metaphor further – the closest thing I have to children are my analytical methods. These algorithms I’ve spent months developing and testing are now out in the wild, making predictions and doing their best to make a name for themselves. So it’s with fatherly apprehension that I approached week one; excited to see how the algorithms would fare in the most coolheaded and objective sense, but also wanting so badly for them to perform.

As with everything that we build up in our minds, week one was nowhere near as good as my greatest hopes nor as bad as my worst fears. The algorithm went a pedestrian 8 for 8. In a whacky week, this was enough to put me well in the top half of most of my handicapping competitions. The results are as follows:

Season_2014_Week_1

So what? It was a shrug of a week. 8 and 8 is certainly within the bounds of my expected performance for backtesting. The top 5 Supercontest picks went exactly 50-50 on both cards, with 2 wins, 2 losses and a tie. Unfortunately in the actual Supercontest the line on the NYJ’s game was -5.5 instead of the -5 on which the projection was based, so currently both Supercontest cards stand at 2-3. Amazingly even 2-3 is enough to have me in a many-way tie for 609th in a record breaking field of 1,395 competitors.

In other news, we’ve got $27,000 in promotional contests this week at Victiv running throughout the weekend. Sign up this week, and get in to play some fantasy football for real cash prizes! Stay tuned for the machine’s week 2 picks and some Victiv value plays and follow me on Twitter for more updates @TheRotoquant.

Good luck in all your week one action!