Week 1 NFL Picks

by thesanction1

Football is here at last. And, as if I wasn’t committed to following the NFL action before – now I’m totally pot-committed, 100% full bore, neck deep in The League. I can’t believe the sports-centric changes that have taken over my life in the last year: I left my position as director of technology at Wolfram Solutions, moved 1800 miles from Boise Id to Austin Tx, and joined Victiv.com as CIO in charge of, amongst other things, athlete pricing and using analytics to optimize the user experience.

Overshadowed by all of this is the original purpose of the Rotoquant: the application of advanced analytics in the context of sports. I’ve hardly even mentioned that I entered the maximum of 2 entries into The LVH Supercontest, where once again I’ll be using the machine’s picks to hopefully coast my way to a cool $500K. I haven’t had time to write up my exciting backtesting results – 70% on all games last year! Honestly, I haven’t slept in weeks, and a shower would do me and my coworkers some good.

It’s better to be busy than broke; I’m certainly not complaining. I just wanted to let anyone who has been following along from the beginning of the Rotoquant know that I haven’t forgotten my roots – the picks will still be coming weekly (unless, of course, I’m in a position to win some serious cash), and I’ll be posting additional data driven sports content throughout the season.

Without further ado, here are the (new and improved) machine’s week-1 NFL picks:

Teams in bold are projected to cover, the higher the factor the greater confidence the machine has in the pick. Fair warning – week 1 contests are the least statistically tractable, without incorporating data from all the trades, roster adjustments, drafts, etc., that have improved many teams during the offseason. I wouldn’t recommend diving right in with these picks until at least week 2 or 3, when the machine has had time to adjust to what the league looks like in 2014.

The LVH super contest are as follows:

Card 1, TheSanction: NYJ, SEA, NO, CAR, DAL

Card 2 TheRotoquant: NYJ, SEA, NO, DAL, JAX

Looking forward to an amazing 2014 season. Check in periodically to follow the progress – it’s going to be an awesome ride.

If you didn’t have the time to to go out to Vegas and sign up for the Superconest but still want to use your sports knowledge to make a buck, give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a try! Check it out at Victiv.com and take advantage of our launch promos with $19,000 in guaranteed payouts, and $4,000 in freerolls!

Good luck in all your contests and leagues – till next time.