Honda Classic Picks
I feel like it’s been ages since my last post. I took vacation from my real job for the first time in a long time, and it provided some much needed relaxation. By sheer coincidence the vacation coincided with a break in the DFS golf season due to the still very interesting Accenture Match Play event that took place last week. If you are a fan of match play, last weekends contest and exciting finish certainly didn’t disappoint.
But, if instead your a fan of numbers, of prediction, of skill-based prediction games like DFS, last week’s contest was simply a chance to step away from DFS entirely and ponder. I wrote a one-off post about variance last week that was well received in the rotogrinders.com forums, talked a little bit of golf with friends and family, but I mostly just tried to relax. I didn’t even open either my personal or work computer for days at a time. Whole days. Like 24 hours in a row.
I must admit to getting anxious towards the end of my vacation and diving in on all sorts of interesting computational projects I had been too busy to tackle. One of them was to totally uproot the old method of prediction for golf, and double check the methodology from a data standpoint. I found a few bugaboos hiding in the dark corners of the code, but luckily it only took one fun-and-code-filled Friday night to chase them out. The biggest change is moving away from the old method of normalizing performance to %MFDSP’s (percentage of mean field draft street points) and instead using a rescaled metric for the basis of my prediction – where the outcomes are now spanning from 0 (no fantasy points) to 1 (highest scoring fantasy golfer). This rescaling is a bit more comprehensible, but more importantly it opens the door to the family of computational methods that require logistic regression – a mathematical technique for predicting numbers that fall between 0 and 1.
So this week you will not see any predictions that are greater than zero. I did not have time to compare the tournament two weekends ago to Notorious with all these dataside changes – but to the extent I can remember such distant events (I’ve traveled from west coast to east coast and back in that same time span) I had a decent (but not great) week.
Let’s see if we can change all that with the Honda…
Picks for the Honda Classic
Here they are (note Justin Rose and a few others have withdrawn from the tournament … I don’t think Rose is here, but just make sure that whoever you’re starting is actually on the course):
The red line here represents the cut, based off of these projections, back at the normal 70th spot.
I don’t have a lot of time for commentary other than… yup! These are the least surprising looking picks at first glance that I can imagine! Let’s hope that means they are also the most accurate.
Good luck everyone in your contests. Talk to you next week.